Are We Talking Ourselves into a Recession?
The U.S. has witnessed unprecedented increases in job openings and, subsequently, a tight labor market. The economy saw a sharp post-Covid recovery last year, however, in recent months, high inflation and ensuing policy tightening has lowered growth forecasts and caused many to expect a fall in the creation of jobs.
Indeed, the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.9% in the three months to July. Yet July also saw 528,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%!
So what’s going on? Should we be worried or are things actually looking pretty good for the remainder of this year and 2023?
In HRchat episode 473, we take a lens to the US economy and labor market and ask “are we talking ourselves into a recession?”
Our guest today is David Garrett, Customer Success Manager and Economic Researcher at Joveo. David is also one of the key architects of Joveo’s new U.S. Labor Market Forecast: Economic Impact on Talent Demand Across Industries and Occupations.
Questions For David Include:
- The US economy has shrunk for the second quarter in a row, a milestone that in many countries would be considered an economic recession. The contraction, at an annual rate of 0.9% in the three months to July, has drawn widespread attention as worries about the economy grow. Should we be worried?
- What is a technical recession?
- The July 2022 US Jobs report showed Payrolls actually increased by 528,000! How is this potential recession different from previous incarnations
- Given there’s nothing fundamentally ‘wrong’ with the US economy, are we ‘talking ourselves into a recession’?
- How are/should HR pros and leaders prepare for a downturn?
- Will some jobs remain in demand even if a recession does hit? If so, which ones?
- How is Joveo helping customers prepare for a potential recession?
About David Garrett
David holds a BA in Economics and Philosophy, and a Master’s Degree in Economics from the University of Texas at Austin.
His passion for labor economics and mechanism design led him to the programmatic advertising space, where he solves real-world problems for his clients through a combination of market analysis, and consultation. He also works closely with senior management, performing extensive investigations on macroeconomic trends in key markets to ensure that Joveo continues to meet the needs of an ever-changing global labor market.
If you enjoyed this conversation, you can check out other recent episodes featuring members of the Joveo team on the HRchat feed!